Second, economists are in much better shape when it comes to explaining economic relationships and predicting longer-term reactions (e.g., increase interest rates and you will see a reaction in both financial and real
economy; disrupt trade relationship and societies as a whole will be worse off). Though even here, we often get it wrong and partly for the same reason as above. While we often predict the correct direction of changes in economic aggregates and
ratios, we are often off in terms of the magnitude. And where we are even off in terms of the direction of changes, there might be opposing factors whose relative importance we mis-estimate. In addition, to dealing with human behavior, we also
face constantly changing environments and limited data.