The more successful the suppression of the virus has been, the
lower the costs of the virus during the new-normal stage of our model. In the new-normal phase, externalities will be predominantly coming through the cross-border spreading of the virus rather than economic channels. We assume that at this stage, borders
are open, allowing people to travel internationally. Direct disruptions in the production process from curtailing production in the other country are thought to be of less relevance then, because production processes will have adjusted; firms will have modified
their supply chain and countries will have become more autarkic. This implies that during the new normal, containment policies may be excessively lenient, and in particular so in countries that have a high mobility (inward and outward), such
as popular tourist destinations.